A cursory look at Nigeria’s struggles @64

At 64, Nigeria presents a troubling picture.

Like an adult struggling with immaturity, the country cannot fully sustain or protect itself despite its abundant resources. Gaining independence from British colonial rule on October 1, 1960, Nigeria’s structure remains weak, built on unstable foundations. Instead of functioning as a true federation—given its over 250 distinct ethnic groups and diverse cultures—the country operates as a centralized unit, which has left it spinning in circles without meaningful progress.

Nigeria’s path since independence has been far from smooth. Unlike China, which also celebrates its national day on October 1 and has experienced rapid growth, Nigeria lags woefully behind. In 2022, China’s GDP was a staggering $17.96 trillion, compared to Nigeria’s $252 billion. This is not just a harsh comparison but a reflection of how far Nigeria has fallen behind.

For the political elite, it may seem like business as usual, but for the average Nigerian, there’s little to celebrate. The high hopes that came with independence have faded, and the soaring cost of living in the past year has only made things worse.

Ethnic groups live in deep mistrust of each other, their early post-colonial competition devolving into bitter rivalry. Core values such as integrity, hard work, and scholarship have been replaced by corruption and animosity. Many of the nation’s youth are fleeing abroad, in what has become known as the “japa” phenomenon.

The numbers paint a grim picture. Between 2015 and May 2023, Nigeria lost 63,135 people to terrorism, banditry, and separatist violence. This trend has persisted under the current president, Bola Tinubu, the fifth leader of Nigeria’s Fourth Republic. Nigeria’s fragile state is reflected in its 2023 ranking on the Fragile States Index, placing it at 15th out of 179 countries, alongside nations like Guinea, Zimbabwe, and Libya.

Nigeria’s mismanagement of its vast resources has resulted in a sea of uncompleted infrastructure projects—around 56,000 in total. According to the World Bank, Nigeria’s infrastructure stock is just 30% of GDP, well below the 70% recommended. The African Development Bank estimates that Nigeria would need to invest $100 billion annually over 30 years to meet its infrastructure needs.

Electricity remains a significant challenge. While continental peers like South Africa and Egypt generate around 58,000 megawatts each, Nigeria struggles to produce a mere 5,000MW. The World Bank reports that 45% of Nigerians still lack access to reliable grid electricity.

Nigeria’s over-reliance on oil revenues has further weakened its economy. With oil prices fluctuating since 2014, the country’s GDP, which hit $510 billion after a rebasing in 2014, has now fallen to $252 billion, placing it fourth on the African continent.

Despite being Africa’s most populous country, with 233 million people, Nigeria cannot feed its own population. The 2023 Global Hunger Index ranks Nigeria 109th out of 125 countries with sufficient data, highlighting a “serious” hunger crisis.

In education and healthcare, the situation is equally bleak. Nigeria has the second-highest number of out-of-school children in the world, with 20.1 million children not receiving education. Strikes, inadequate pay, and poor infrastructure plague the university system. In healthcare, many of the country’s medical professionals are leaving for better opportunities abroad, putting further strain on a system already struggling to serve the population.

Since overtaking India as the world’s poverty capital in 2018, Nigeria has only seen its poverty levels worsen. As of 2022, 133 million Nigerians were living in multidimensional poverty, and the removal of the fuel subsidy in 2023 further deepened the crisis, pushing an additional 7 million people into poverty.

The economy is poorly structured, as reflected in the country’s low tax-to-GDP ratio of 10%, one of the lowest in the world. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) recommends a minimum of 16% for sustainable development. Nigeria’s states are struggling to implement a new national minimum wage of N70,000 per month, while the federal government faces mounting debt, with its debt stock exceeding N121 trillion in 2024.

Despite these challenges, Nigeria clings to its flawed political structure, which has only fueled discontent and deepened socioeconomic hardships. Without urgent reforms, the country faces an inevitable collapse. There are limited paths forward—either Nigeria restructures into a true federation, where power is devolved to its constituent regions, or it risks violent disintegration.

It is a critical moment for Nigeria’s political class to act. Delay, at this point, is a dangerous gamble the nation cannot afford.