World Bank Warns Rising Fertilizer Costs and Climate Risks Could Threaten Global Food Supply

The World Bank has raised fresh concerns over the growing pressures facing global food systems, warning that rising fertilizer costs and escalating climate risks could significantly disrupt food production and threaten food security in many parts of the world.

According to the international financial institution, farmers are grappling with a combination of soaring agricultural input costs, unpredictable weather patterns, and ongoing global economic uncertainties. These challenges are making it increasingly difficult to sustain food production at a time when the world’s population continues to grow and demand for food keeps rising.

While global food markets have shown signs of resilience in recent years, the World Bank cautions that multiple risks are converging simultaneously. If left unaddressed, these pressures could lead to reduced agricultural output, higher food prices, increased hunger, and greater economic hardship, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.

The warning highlights the urgent need for governments, development partners, financial institutions, and the private sector to strengthen agricultural resilience, support farmers, and invest in sustainable food systems capable of withstanding future shocks.

Fertilizer Costs Continue to Rise

Fertilizer remains one of the most critical inputs in modern agriculture. It provides essential nutrients that improve soil fertility and help farmers achieve higher crop yields. Staple crops such as maize, rice, wheat, sorghum, and vegetables all depend on adequate fertilizer application for optimal production.

However, the cost of fertilizer has continued to climb due to several interconnected global factors. Rising energy prices have significantly increased production costs since natural gas is a major component in manufacturing nitrogen-based fertilizers. Supply chain disruptions, geopolitical tensions, transportation costs, and export restrictions in some producing countries have further tightened global fertilizer supplies.

The World Bank notes that these higher costs are making fertilizer increasingly unaffordable for many farmers, especially smallholder producers who already operate with limited financial resources.

For millions of farmers, purchasing enough fertilizer for an entire planting season has become a major financial challenge. Some are forced to reduce application rates, while others may forgo fertilizer altogether. Although these decisions may reduce immediate production costs, they often result in lower crop yields, poorer harvest quality, and reduced farm income.

The consequences extend far beyond individual farms. Lower agricultural productivity can contribute to food shortages, drive up market prices, and place additional pressure on national economies that depend heavily on agricultural production.

Climate Change Is Increasing Agricultural Risks

Beyond rising production costs, climate change continues to emerge as one of the greatest threats to global agriculture.

Farmers around the world are increasingly experiencing prolonged droughts, severe flooding, extreme heat, irregular rainfall, stronger storms, and shifting growing seasons. These changing weather patterns are affecting crop performance and making agricultural planning more difficult than ever before.

The World Bank warns that climate-related shocks are becoming more frequent and more intense, reducing the reliability of food production in many vulnerable regions.

Even where fertilizer is available, extreme weather can prevent farmers from achieving expected yields. Heavy rains may wash nutrients away before crops can absorb them, while drought conditions reduce plants’ ability to utilize fertilizer effectively. Heat stress can also damage crops during critical stages of growth, resulting in significant production losses.

As these climate risks continue to intensify, agricultural systems that rely on predictable weather patterns are becoming increasingly vulnerable.

Experts believe that climate resilience must become a central component of agricultural policy, with greater investment in irrigation, climate-smart farming practices, improved weather forecasting, drought-resistant crop varieties, and sustainable land management. See: IGAD Strengthens Regional Institutions to Scale Climate-Smart Agriculture Across Eastern Africa

Smallholder Farmers Face the Greatest Burden

The combined impact of rising fertilizer prices and climate uncertainty falls most heavily on smallholder farmers.

Across Africa, Asia, and Latin America, small-scale farmers produce a substantial share of the food consumed locally. Yet many lack access to affordable credit, insurance, modern farming technologies, quality seeds, and agricultural extension services.

Without adequate financial support, many are unable to purchase fertilizer at current market prices or invest in climate adaptation measures that could help protect their farms.

Reduced productivity among these farmers not only affects household incomes but also threatens food availability in local communities where agricultural production remains the backbone of rural economies.

The World Bank stresses that supporting smallholder farmers is essential to maintaining food security and building more resilient agricultural systems.

Policies that improve access to financing, agricultural training, improved seed varieties, irrigation infrastructure, and modern technologies can help farmers better withstand future shocks while increasing productivity.

Implications for Nigeria

Nigeria is among the countries that could feel the effects of these global challenges.

Agriculture remains a major source of employment and income for millions of Nigerians. The sector also plays a critical role in national food security and economic development.

However, Nigerian farmers already contend with numerous obstacles, including high production costs, insecurity in farming communities, inadequate storage facilities, poor transportation infrastructure, limited access to mechanization, and the growing effects of climate change.

Flooding has destroyed farmlands in several parts of the country in recent years, while prolonged dry spells have reduced yields in others. Rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns continue to create uncertainty for farmers who depend largely on rain-fed agriculture.

If fertilizer prices continue to rise globally, many Nigerian farmers may struggle to maintain previous levels of production.

Lower crop yields could lead to tighter food supplies, placing upward pressure on the prices of staple foods such as maize, rice, cassava, tomatoes, and vegetables.

For consumers already dealing with inflation and rising living costs, higher food prices would further strain household budgets and increase food insecurity among vulnerable populations.

The situation also poses risks for food processing companies, retailers, and businesses whose operations depend on stable agricultural supply chains.

The Need for Climate-Smart Agriculture

The World Bank’s warning reinforces the importance of adopting climate-smart agricultural practices that enable farmers to produce more food while adapting to changing environmental conditions.

Climate-smart agriculture involves techniques that improve productivity, strengthen resilience, and reduce environmental impact.

Examples include efficient irrigation systems, conservation agriculture, crop rotation, integrated soil fertility management, agroforestry, precision farming technologies, improved seed varieties, and sustainable fertilizer application.

These approaches not only help farmers maintain productivity during periods of climate stress but also contribute to healthier soils, improved water management, and lower greenhouse gas emissions.

Digital technologies are also becoming increasingly important.

Weather forecasting tools, satellite monitoring, mobile advisory services, and precision agriculture solutions can provide farmers with timely information that supports better decision-making throughout the farming season.

Investments in agricultural research and innovation will be essential as countries seek long-term solutions to climate-related food production challenges.

Why the Private Sector Has a Role to Play

Ensuring food security cannot be achieved by governments alone.

Businesses throughout the agricultural value chain have an important role in building more resilient food systems.

Financial institutions can develop lending products that improve farmers’ access to affordable credit. Agribusinesses can invest in sustainable sourcing practices and provide technical support to producers. Fertilizer companies can explore more efficient distribution systems, while technology firms can develop digital solutions that improve farm management.

Food manufacturers and retailers also have opportunities to strengthen local supply chains by supporting sustainable agricultural practices among their suppliers.

Corporate investments in sustainable agriculture, environmental stewardship, and community development increasingly form part of broader Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) strategies.

Such initiatives not only help strengthen food production but also improve livelihoods, protect natural resources, and contribute to long-term business resilience.

Strengthening Global Food Systems

The World Bank believes that addressing today’s agricultural challenges requires coordinated international action.

Governments will need to invest more heavily in agricultural infrastructure, rural development, irrigation systems, research institutions, and climate adaptation programmes.

International development organizations can support countries through financing, technical assistance, and knowledge sharing.

At the same time, efforts to improve fertilizer availability, strengthen supply chains, reduce post-harvest losses, and encourage sustainable farming practices will remain essential.

Building resilient food systems means preparing agriculture to withstand multiple shocks rather than responding only after crises emerge.

Long-term planning will become increasingly important as climate risks continue to evolve.

A Call for Collective Action

The World Bank’s latest warning serves as a reminder that food security is closely connected to climate resilience, economic stability, environmental sustainability, and global cooperation.

The convergence of rising fertilizer prices, changing weather patterns, supply chain disruptions, and economic uncertainty presents one of the most significant challenges facing global agriculture today.

Without decisive action, these pressures could increase hunger, deepen poverty, and undermine progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals, particularly those related to ending hunger, reducing inequality, and promoting sustainable development.

For countries like Nigeria, strengthening agricultural resilience is no longer simply an economic priority—it is a necessity for national development and social stability.

Supporting farmers, encouraging innovation, investing in sustainable agriculture, and promoting climate adaptation will be essential to protecting future food supplies and ensuring that communities remain resilient in the face of growing global challenges.

As the world continues to confront the realities of climate change and economic uncertainty, the choices made today will determine the resilience of tomorrow’s food systems. The World Bank’s warning is therefore not merely a forecast of potential risks but a call to accelerate investments, strengthen partnerships, and adopt sustainable solutions that can safeguard global food security for generations to come.

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