Negotiation after negotiation, the world seem to be moving a little closer to reducing global carbon emissions, with representatives from nearly 200 countries agreeing at the Conference of Parties (COP28) in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, to begin to gradually decrease the use of fossils fuels.
However, while the strong language used in the draft deal which saw most oil producing nations kick against it had been toned down, the consensus was that to avert the worst of climate change, the world needed to reduce consumption of hydrocarbons.
The deal came after two weeks of brickbats, even as scientists insisted that the last best hope to stave off climate catastrophe would be to phase out fossil fuel production and consumption.
However, while Nigeria has set 2060 to meet its NetZero, it has argued that the entire continent of Africa emits just about 3 per cent of global emissions and therefore that the burden to clean up the mess should fall on industrialised nations.
Nigeria has now chosen gas, a cleaner source of energy as its own transition fuel, maintaining that compelling it to jettison its natural resources when majority of its citizens neither has reliable electricity supply nor has access to clean cooking fuels is unacceptable.
Some key areas of the deal included the reinforcement of the 1.5C goal, which essentially means that carbons emissions need to be limited by that number above preindustrial levels to fight the climate change scourge.
It also recognised that it would require a 43 per cent emissions cut by 2030 and 60 per cent by 2035 relative to 2019 levels, implying a major increase in targets and policies when countries submit new commitments in 2025.
Signatories also backed a call for global renewable energy to be tripled and the rate of energy efficiency improvements doubled by 2030.
However, a statement that global emissions should peak by 2025 was dropped, as China and some other countries objected to the clause, with terms backed by oil producers like “transition fuels” and “carbon capture and utilisation and storage”, finding their way to the deal.
In addition, a loss and damage fund to help the most vulnerable repair the damage from climate breakdown was operationalised – a major step forward – even though significant work remains to build its capacity.
COP28 President, Sultan al-Jaber called the deal “historic” but added that its true success would be in its implementation.
“We are what we do, not what we say,” he told the crowded plenary at the summit. “We must take the steps necessary to turn this agreement into tangible actions,” Reuters and The Guardian UK quoted him as saying.
Several countries cheered the deal for accomplishing something that until now eluded decades of climate talks.
More than 100 countries had lobbied hard for strong language in the COP28 agreement to “phase out” oil, gas and coal use, but came up against powerful opposition from the Saudi Arabia-led oil producer group, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which said the world can cut emissions without shunning specific fuels.
That battle pushed the summit a full day into overtime on Wednesday, and had some observers worried the negotiations would end at an impasse.
Members of OPEC control nearly 80 per cent of the world’s proven oil reserves along with about a third of global oil output, and their governments, like Nigeria rely heavily on those revenues.
Small climate-vulnerable island states, meanwhile, were among the most vocal supporters of language to phase out fossil fuels and had the backing of major oil and gas producers such as the United States, Canada and Norway, as well as the European Union and scores of other governments.
“This is a moment where multilateralism has actually come together and people have taken individual interests and attempted to define the common good,” US climate envoy, John Kerry, said after the deal was adopted.
The deal called for “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner … so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science.”
To some extent, that language described what had already begun to happen, with some governments enacting policies in recent years to transition to a greener economy.
Several other oil producer countries, advocated for a role for carbon capture in the pact. But critics say the technology remains expensive and unproven at scale, and say it can be used to justify continued drilling.
China, the world’s biggest carbon polluter today, suggested that industrialised countries should lead the way.
“Developed countries have ‘unshirkable’ historical responsibilities for climate change,” the Country’s Vice Environment Minister, Zhao Yingmin, said after the pact was approved.
Oil, gas, and coal currently account for about 80 per cent of the world’s energy, and projections vary widely about when global demand will finally hit its peak.
Al Jaber argued that the deal, reached in the hottest year on record, was a comprehensive response to a global stocktake that found countries were failing to live up to the goals of the landmark Paris climate agreement.
“We have delivered a robust action plan to keep 1.5C in reach,” he said. “It is an enhanced, balanced, but make no mistake, a historic package to accelerate climate action. It is the UAE consensus. We have language on fossil fuel in our final agreement for the first time ever,” he added.
In his reaction, the UN Secretary General, António Guterres, tweeted: “Whether you like it or not, fossil fuel phase-out is inevitable. Let’s hope it doesn’t come too late.” Countries will reconvene at Cop29, which will be held in Baku, Azerbaijan, next November.
