ONYINYECHI NWAIGBA 
Nigeria spent N2.03 trillion on agricultural imports in the first half of 2026, an 8.5 per cent decline from the N2.22 trillion recorded during the same period in 2025.
On the surface, the decline may look like a sign that Nigeria is becoming less dependent on imported agricultural products. But the numbers tell a more nuanced story.
According to the latest Foreign Trade Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), agricultural imports stood at N827.72 billion in the first quarter of 2026 before rising significantly to N1.20 trillion in the second quarter.
So while the six-month figure was lower year-on-year, imports actually increased by 45.4 per cent between the first and second quarters.
This raises a bigger question: is Nigeria producing more of what it consumes, or are other factors responsible for the decline?
The Numbers Behind the Decline
Nigeria’s agricultural imports fell from N2.22 trillion in H1 2025 to N2.03 trillion in H1 2026.
In Q1 2026, agricultural products accounted for 6.08 per cent of Nigeria’s total imports, compared with 6.71 per cent in the same quarter of 2025.
By Q2, however, agriculture’s share of total imports increased to 8.35 per cent, compared with 7.75 per cent in Q2 2025.
The figures therefore do not show a straight downward trend throughout the year. Instead, they show a lower half-year import value alongside a significant increase in imports between the first and second quarters.
That distinction matters because a reduction in the value of imports can happen for several reasons, including changes in prices, exchange rates, demand, supply conditions or the availability of locally produced alternatives.
The NBS data itself does not establish that the decline was caused by increased domestic production.
At the Same Time, Agricultural Exports Are Picking Up
One of the more interesting parts of the latest trade data is what happened on the export side.
While agricultural imports declined over the first half of the year, Nigerian farmers and agro-processors continued to send major commodities to international markets.
In Q2 2026, standard-quality cocoa beans were Nigeria’s leading agricultural export, generating N154.31 billion.
Sesame seeds followed with N96.03 billion, while superior-quality cocoa beans generated N58.82 billion.
Other notable agricultural exports included soya beans at N50.22 billion, soya bean flours and meals at N36.41 billion, cut flowers and flower buds at N31.43 billion, natural cocoa butter at N27.60 billion and crude shea oil at N12.66 billion.
The figures point to continued demand for Nigerian agricultural commodities beyond the domestic market.
More importantly, they highlight where some of Nigeria’s agricultural export opportunities are currently concentrated.
Cocoa and sesame, in particular, are showing the potential for agricultural products to contribute more significantly to Nigeria’s non-oil export earnings.
But Lower Imports Do Not Automatically Mean Food Self-Sufficiency
This is perhaps the most important part of the numbers.
A decline in agricultural imports can be positive for local production, but it should not automatically be interpreted as proof that Nigeria has replaced imported food with locally produced alternatives.
Nigeria still imports significant volumes of agricultural and food products, and the Q2 increase shows that import demand remains substantial.
The NBS figures also show that agriculture accounted for 8.35 per cent of total imports in Q2 2026.
For local producers, the bigger opportunity is therefore not simply reducing the import bill.
It is creating an agricultural system capable of consistently supplying the Nigerian market while also producing enough surplus for export.
That requires more than increasing the number of people farming.
It means improving productivity, storage, processing, transportation, access to finance and market connections across the value chain.
Why Local Processing Matters
Nigeria’s agricultural opportunity extends beyond producing raw commodities.
The export figures show strong demand for products such as cocoa beans, sesame and soya beans. But greater value can potentially be created when more agricultural commodities are processed locally before being exported or sold domestically.
For example, the presence of cocoa butter and soya bean meals among major agricultural exports shows that agricultural trade is not limited entirely to raw produce.
Expanding processing capacity could allow more businesses to participate in the value chain while creating additional opportunities for employment, manufacturing and exports.
This is particularly important for smallholder farmers and small and medium-sized agribusinesses, which make up a significant part of Nigeria’s agricultural ecosystem.
Agriculture Remains a Major Source of Jobs
The importance of agriculture to Nigeria goes beyond trade statistics.
NBS data shows that 25.34 million people were engaged in agriculture, forestry and fishing in 2023, representing 30.1 per cent of the country’s total workforce.
That means changes in agricultural production, imports and exports have implications for millions of livelihoods.
If domestic production becomes more productive and competitive, the benefits could extend from farmers to processors, transporters, traders, retailers and other businesses connected to the agricultural value chain.
The challenge is ensuring that growth translates into stronger livelihoods rather than simply higher volumes of commodities moving through the system.
The Bigger Picture for Nigeria’s Agriculture
Nigeria’s N2.03 trillion agricultural import bill in the first half of 2026 is a significant figure, but the real story is bigger than the decline itself.
The country is simultaneously recording lower agricultural imports on a year-on-year basis, a sharp increase in imports between Q1 and Q2, and strong export activity in commodities such as cocoa, sesame and soya.
Taken together, the figures show an agricultural sector in transition.
The opportunity for Nigeria is to turn this movement in trade into something more sustainable: producing more efficiently, reducing avoidable dependence on imports, processing more agricultural products locally and building stronger routes into international markets.
The goal should not simply be to celebrate a smaller import bill.
It should be to build an agricultural economy that can feed its population, create decent livelihoods, support businesses and compete more effectively in global markets.
For farmers and agribusinesses, the latest trade figures offer both a signal and an opportunity. Demand exists at home and abroad. The next challenge is building the capacity to meet it consistently.
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